The Bare Bones? Forests Squad strength and Results

So..  All the talk on the radio and forums is that Forest are in free fall because of a deluge of injuries.  Which got me thinking...  Is there a way to measure the injury factor objectively?  So, I have had a go.  Here is the method:
1. Describe every position and rank all the players in their squad in order of choice for their best position.
2. Give 3 points for the top choice, 2 for the second choice, 1 for third choice, and 0 for less than this.  This rating responds to new players coming in or going out (the 2nd choice striker may be 3rd choice once the new signing arrives in January)
3. On this basis, a typical squad of 26 players can range from 33 points (first choice in every position) to 28 points (7 second choice and 4 third choice players).  Express this as a percentage and you have a measure for squad strength.

My hypothesis is that we can chart the top 6 clubs compared to forest to see the degree to which squad strength decline due to injuries and suspensions is affecting results.

What does it show for Forest, for the first 36 games of the season?

Three things to note:

• The decline in squad strength is real, and has been steadily increasing since the start of the season.
• Forests' points per game (the black bars) actually did better in games 21-30 with a squad strength of 50-60% than it did in the earlier game 3-13, despite many more of the first choice players being available in the earlier spell with a squad strength around 80%
• The recent implosion does correspond to a further decline with now just 40% of the full strength squad being selected for recent matches.

So, it might mean some sympathy for the manager, but also to be noted that the 'first choice' school of thought is only true up to a point.  A well motivated team comprising a fair number of second choice players can outperform the 'on-paper' top choices.    Perhaps the manager needs more credit for the more recent run given the depleted squad that achieved it, and perhaps the players need to take some heart from this.  It will not need the team to be back at 80-90% full strength for our fortunes to turn.  

My opinion has always been that the key issue for forest is the central midfield strength.  For 1 good holding midfielder (Guediora/Vaughan) plus Lansbury & Reid are between them a big big part of the reds success. 

Whether forest can bring in an emergency loan to address the deficit from Lansbury's absence could have a significant bearing on the prospects for a Wembley trip in 67 (and counting) days time.