Forest Players during the Fawaz Era

Things are getting heated.  With the continued possibility of a takeover, and the chairman finally agreeing with his critics that his era has not succeeded and needs a more professional approach, now is a good time to look back at the players the team has acquired during his period in charge.

Is the squad stronger or weaker than the bunch that were pounding the doughty academy training ground in July 2012?  And which managerial team was responsible for that?

The graphic above shows in normal typeface the players that were in the squad the first season which spanned Sean O Driscoll and Alex McLeish's short reigns completed by Billy Davies.  Davies' summer signings in his full season are in purple italic.  The pearce era captures in black bold and the Pereira / Montanier team acquisitions in green italic.  The players are a mixture of signings and playerrs coming through the youth set up shown alongside the manager who gave them their first full first team starts

Keepers
A difficult category to assess.  De Vries and Stojkovic have been astute free acquisitions, with De Vries in particular masking defensive frailties with shot stopping heroics.  Both Camp and Darlow at their peaks were strong keepers, although by this period Camps form had declined, whereas Darlow continued to progress until he got a Premier league transfer.    It has not been a problem position for the club, and the first choice keeper looks not to have progressed but may not have declined either, although there is clearly less strength in depth as Henderson made a very shaky start.  I'd give it on balance to Billy Davies signings, as Camp and De Vries go back to his era.

Left Back

For many years a problem position and arguably the one which showed up Davies' era signings most, an Achilles heel during playoffs.  Freedman takes the crown for this position hands down, with Pinillos and Jokic the two outstanding players, both acquired for free.   Hard to exaggerate the weakness at the start of the Fawaz era, and whilst the jury is out on Traore, and Fox selection elicits widespread facepalms across NG2, Pinillos with Traore/Fox back is a far better state of affairs than the honest but limited endeavour of Harding and Maloney.

Right Back

Despite bursts of decent form by Jara and the promising but short recovery from injury of Chelsea Loanee Hutchinson,  the right back position had become a weak point too by the end of the Doughty ownership era.  Lichaj has made the position his own, despite limited competition, and Pereira whilst a talented player with attacking flair, does not provide the defensive positioning and tackling prowess needed to beat him.   I give this to Davies, and again think we are stronger now than we were four and a half years ago.

Centre Back
A cast of thousands.  Ayala, Ward and Lasceilles were a fairly strong starting point in the first season, with Danny Collins backing up, although the leadership of the Morgan and Chambers / Wilson first era, had long since moved on.  Davies signings were mixed:  Wilson (era 2) was an expensive mistake for a player in decline having lost his reliability, although Hobbs was a solid - if injury prone - signing.   Gomis?  Lets move on.  Although Perquis looks a decent signing, Lam is ill suited to the role and overall Pereria/Montanier have struggled hugely defensively.  I'd give centre back to Dougie Freedman.  Picking up the championships most expensive previous centre back signing on a free in Mills and top flight German league, and ex England youth international Mancienne, during a transfer embargo with a wage cap was outstanding.   On paper the team at this position is stronger now than in 2012 with Mills/Perquis/Hobbs/Mancienne, but progress in individuals only underlines the scale to which the championships leakiest defense bar Rotherham is underperforming, with 3 seasons of year on year defensive decline.   The best signing the club could make right now is a defensive coach.  

Left Midfield/Left Wing
We continue to mourn the passing from football of the mercurial playmaker that was Andy Reid, and the undervaluation of one of the premier league's best acquisitions from the championship in Michail Antonio.    Osborne's effort and tidy ball control make him popular with the fans but we have not hit the heights.   Whilst Abdoun and McLaughlin showed up the random disaster that was the chairman and wee scot together losing the plot.  I'd have to give this to the Pearce era.  Given Antonio was willingly given up by Sheffield Wednesday fans as an under-performer, we captured a gem.  Had we kept him, or got a fee in keeping with his quality, who knows where we might be.  Despite Osborne's industry, Carayol's patchy performances and Dumitru's yet to be seen adaptation to championship football show we are not stronger in this berth.

Right Midfield/Right Wing
At the start of the Kuwaiti's tenure, Forest basically did not play with wide men.  Doncaster's Coppinger comes from the SOD connection.  He was and is a decent league one midfielder.  Davies strengthened in decent but overpaid Tonka Toy Mackie, and the initially impressive but never quite worked out Patterson.  Pearce did well with Chris Burke initially very strong but fading, whilst giving the first outings to teenage prodigy Oliver 'Twisty' Burke gives him credit, although it was freedman who built on this.  Freedman's acquisition of Ward also added depth, so by the start of this season we were much strengthened on this flank, particularly with link play with Pereira.     The club self-destruct button applied since then has left many fans deeply saddened.  Burke in a bit part in the Bundesliga, and Lica yet to blossom, Ward loaned out.  Whilst not quite back to the threadbare 2012 situation, we have reversed the progress that was made.

Central Midfield
It is striking the sheer numbers of central midfielders in the squad in 2012.   Gillett and the by now fading Moussi showed frailty in defensive duties in the centre of the park.  A string of journeymen passing through were not righted until Chris Cohen overcame the successive injuries to resume his box to box duties although David Vaughan has been a solid acquisition.

Creatively we never replaced the initially magical but in decline Majewski, and still do not have an attacking midfield link player of quality, nor the creativity and set piece alchemy of Lewis McGugan.

In the centre of the park Lansbury is maturing and Matt Cash looks an exciting prospect although Kasami whilst showing some early skills has hit a prolonged period of poor form and shows a lack of fitness.  We continue to lack the physical leadership qualities that Paul McKenna in a previous era provided.  Forest are prone to get bullied in the middle of the park, and the whole seems less than the sum of the parts.   Overall an area that remains a problem for the club to control the play and to unlock stubborn defences.  No manager gets the award for this position.

Up Front
With Assombalonga, Bendtner, and Vellios now settled in (and Fryatt continuing to warm the injury table) Forest have much higher calibre firepower than in 2012 albeit less depth.  We might just give that to the Pereira/Montanier era who captured two of these three.  Assombalonga in the Pearce era is the top signing, but the failure of Veldwijk and injury prone Fryatt to make a difference suggests mixed results back then, and Brit was possible only due to Fawaz taking a deal for Darlow and Lasceilles which was not the manager's preference.

Summing up
On balance, the club has a significantly stronger squad than 2012 although it continues to underperform, and good individuals do not always make the best overall team.

Given all the players who have passed through to select from, I'd probably pick the following as my Fawaz era first eleven:

GK - De Vries
RB - Lichaj
CB - Mills
CB - Hobbs
LB - Pinillos
RW - O Burke
CM - Cohen
CM - Reid
LW - Antonio
ST - Assombalonga
ST - Sharp

Do the stats bear this out?  Thats a good question.

The Bare Bones? Forests Squad strength and Results

So..  All the talk on the radio and forums is that Forest are in free fall because of a deluge of injuries.  Which got me thinking...  Is there a way to measure the injury factor objectively?  So, I have had a go.  Here is the method:
1. Describe every position and rank all the players in their squad in order of choice for their best position.
2. Give 3 points for the top choice, 2 for the second choice, 1 for third choice, and 0 for less than this.  This rating responds to new players coming in or going out (the 2nd choice striker may be 3rd choice once the new signing arrives in January)
3. On this basis, a typical squad of 26 players can range from 33 points (first choice in every position) to 28 points (7 second choice and 4 third choice players).  Express this as a percentage and you have a measure for squad strength.

My hypothesis is that we can chart the top 6 clubs compared to forest to see the degree to which squad strength decline due to injuries and suspensions is affecting results.

What does it show for Forest, for the first 36 games of the season?

Three things to note:

• The decline in squad strength is real, and has been steadily increasing since the start of the season.
• Forests' points per game (the black bars) actually did better in games 21-30 with a squad strength of 50-60% than it did in the earlier game 3-13, despite many more of the first choice players being available in the earlier spell with a squad strength around 80%
• The recent implosion does correspond to a further decline with now just 40% of the full strength squad being selected for recent matches.

So, it might mean some sympathy for the manager, but also to be noted that the 'first choice' school of thought is only true up to a point.  A well motivated team comprising a fair number of second choice players can outperform the 'on-paper' top choices.    Perhaps the manager needs more credit for the more recent run given the depleted squad that achieved it, and perhaps the players need to take some heart from this.  It will not need the team to be back at 80-90% full strength for our fortunes to turn.  

My opinion has always been that the key issue for forest is the central midfield strength.  For 1 good holding midfielder (Guediora/Vaughan) plus Lansbury & Reid are between them a big big part of the reds success. 

Whether forest can bring in an emergency loan to address the deficit from Lansbury's absence could have a significant bearing on the prospects for a Wembley trip in 67 (and counting) days time.

Barnsley Barometer Brings Billy Blues

Barnsley.  A place I have been to with inexplicable regularity since supporting the club.  The annual away visit is rather like an annual check up at the Doctor.  How are we doing?  We can have an off day against a rival and come out badly, but whether we dispatch this team with ruthlessness and style is usually a good barometer.

Five years ago we were in a tussle for automatic with West Brom in Billy Davies first full season.  We were in second before 2 away losses in mid March, the second being Barnsley, a 2-1 defeat.  We went on to haul just 15 points from the remaining 11 games while the Baggies picked up 28, and the playoff lottery was ours.

After the sting of missing out on Wembley, we were soon back at Oakwell for another reality check in late October.  After an opening day loss the reds had gone on a 9 match unbeaten run until we again found ourselves 2 goals down and despite a Lewis McGugan special, conceded again at the death to be well beaten.  Another playoff year was to ensue, and more pre-Wembley heartache.

By next season's spring venture up the M1 the reds had self destructed with the ill judged Schteve disaster, and were perilously close to relegation.  The club was reeling from the sudden death of chairman Nigel Doughty four weeks earlier, and Steve Cotterill assisted by one  Sean O Driscoll were gamely trying to get the brakes on to halt a slide into League one.  They managed it, for which we owe them a great debt.  But the Barnsley game illustrated why Cotterill would not end up taking up the reins once the new owner arrived.    We dominated a side rock bottom on confidence with 5 losses in their previous 6.   After a good McLeary finish, we should have been out of sight by half time, even if our play was not exactly the beautiful game.  Instead, we sat back to defend a 1-0 lead that the inevitable equalizer came, and Cotterill's happiness with a point epitomised how far Forest had fallen from the previous 2 seasons.

Despite assembling a squad from scratch in about 5 days, Sean O'Driscoll was making a good fist of the Al Hasawi owner's first season in charge which managed to get to the Oakwell game at the end of October having been beaten only twice.  Forest were purring, and despite a Marlon Harewood opener that was not in the script we wopped them with Halford, Cox and Cohen on the score sheet before half time, and the returning son Jermaine Jenas finishing a deft dink over the keeper to put the icing on the cake.  It seemed we were building steadily and Barnsley away showed the promise ahead as we moved into 7th place.  Sean's reign was ended in a ground hog day moment of "chairman gets dazzled by former international manager who comes in and bombs out" plot-line, and the wee scot returned to the managerial fold, ultimately finishing one place below where we were on that cloudy autumn day.

And so to today.  Again Barnsley would be a litmus test.  Forest with arguably the strongest squad in the division and being well placed for a tilt at second, sat a comfortable 9 points above 7th place but problems loom.  The ever growing sick bay at the city ground had its 7th first choice player enter with Hobbs & Reidy joining Lansbury, Cohen, Wilson, Vaughan and Lichaj.   Despite this, we had a 14 game unbeaten run, but it looked like things were finally creaking.  A draw to Leicester was disappointing but creditable, but then back to back losses against Burnley and Wigan.  But both those teams are strong top 6 sides so had the wheels really come off?  The social media noise tended to be looking in the face of triumph and disaster with every result seeing neither for the impostor Kipling unmasks them to be.   Barnsley though.  Barnsley would be the test.  Barnsley, bottom of the table, just thumped 5-0 and having won only once since early December.   A side run on a shoestring, who can muster only 9,300 home fans to the game.  The prevailing thinking is that even if the depleted Reds cant master the top clubs until our squad recovers, if we can build up the points against the weaker teams we will ease into the playoffs for a final burst for the Wembley prize.

The Yorkshire club do their best.  Stirring music and a parade of flag waving children stoked up an eery quiet ground despite the ghostly half of the fourth stand, the championship's answer to the Marie Celeste.  Still,  the roar of the eager away mob of just under 3,000 filled the air.  A perfect antidote to the dark malcontent and self doubt of the forums and twitterati of recent days as our heroes decked in the white and blue of the limited edition third kit took to the field.

The first half saw a scrappy forest make a sleepy start, perhaps lulled by the home crowd's polite silence.  There were three  highlights of the first half hour:   Darlow tipping over a good strike by the not-closed-down Dale Jennings, then the WWF reverse slam with half nelson by debutante Kevin Gomis when he got the wrong side of a Barnsley player out wide, and finally the entertaining chants of 'He walks on the Trent, he walks on the Trent, he's Jonathan Greening, he walks on the Trent' as the Jesus lookalikey warmed up down the touchline.     

With echoes of the Cotterill game before it, Forest were giving the home side plenty of room and their shattered confidence was gradually rebuilding before our eyes.   Forest struggled to play with any fluency or create anything to raise an eyebrow, up until Abdoun's act of sorcery by the corner flag to skip past 2 players and head in.  But by now forest's pattern of casual misplaced passing was causing more trouble.  Another shot on Darlow's goal. 

This was a muted performance lacking energy.  No passing to feet, and a level of lumping it forward not seen since previous managers had been at the helm.  Forest's best chance came late on in the half with a well weighted Abdoun cross perfectly placed for a free header from the penalty spot, but with the goal at his mercy Cox headed wide.

There was a sense that it wouldn't take much to pull away from the Yorkshire club, but Forest hadn't got out of first gear and the half was fizzling out. 

Now one thing my trips to Barnsley these last five years have taught me is that it is not a place of lightning fast service.  The prospect of a 25 minute queue for food that has run out waiting for the black capped assistants move in zombie-like dazed slow motion whilst I miss the second half did not appeal.  Could I tear myself away from the languid spectacle of the last 10 minutes of the first 45?   I  sloped off early before the oven chips ran out and secured what is the highlight of the trip to these parts:  a short crust Balti pie.   Waiting in the queue for the inevitable cheer that said I'd missed a cracker of a goal.  I need not have worried.  All was deathly quiet and the crowd heaved a sigh of relief when the ref mercifully added only a single minute of added time.  The players troop off down a tunnel by the corner flag at Barnsley, and we away fans applauded politely to encourage the lads.

Hope reawakens at the re-start.  The vocal optimism of the away fans has been subdued but we hope for a rallying round and some more energy and drive to take this game by the scruff of the neck.  Unfortunately, it seems there has not been a team talk to speak of, and more of the same ensues.  9 minutes in, like the first half, Dale not-closed-down Jennings has another crack - but this time it goes past Darlow and to the home fans delighted disbelief their team are leading.   A brief wake-up call brings out some good work by Cox to get into the box, and earn a corner, and a chance for a rather tame shot by Radi.  But we huff and puff and ease back.  We still fail to raise our game, struggling to string 2 passes together or exert any pressure and the home side begin to really believe.   We are making a terrible side look Ok.  

Again Barnsley test Darlow at full stretch from a corner.  A long clearance swirls to Abdoun who wins a free kick at the corner of the penalty area.   His floated strike comes to nothing as if to mockingly underscore Reid's absence.  Paterson drives a stinger and is not far away.  Abdoun drives a stinger from further out and IS far away, when a pass to a better placed player was the better choice.  Groans all around. 

Hendo comes on for Mackie,   Derbyshire for Cox.  

A mazy dribble past 3 Barnsley players and into the box for Halford proves his last significant contribution of the afternoon as the shot rises skyward high above the goal.  Despite the early season experiment, a centre forward he is not.   So  Moose displaces Jara who has struggled in the defensive midfield role and returns to Right Back for Halford to end his afternoon.

The home side dig in, and defend with passion as Forest try a few of their moves but it is not wholehearted, and a second Abdoun free kick late on is, in all honesty, the only real test their keeper has had all day. 

And with that, and five minutes (or two Barnsley keeper goal kicks if you prefer that unit of time) stoppages, the game is over.   3 defeats in a row.   I join the ranks of those who, a week ago were telling people hitting the panic button not to overreact, who are now silently doing the maths about 7th place and hoping above hope that Jonathan Greening picks up Jesus' other talents and brings some healing power to the city ground sick bay.  

Welcome fellow travellers

It is the year of our Lord two thousand and fourteen.  Pent up paranoia and siege mentality abound at the City Ground, with the medical treatment table resembling something out of a season ender of Grey's Anatomy and the hopes and fears of Forest fans spilling over into anger, recrimination and factions in the twittersphere.

Some people cope by booing the team.  Others by booing the booers.  More still by tweeting hostilities obscenities or gallows humour.  But I have finally decided that 140 characters just isn't going to cut it for someone as long-winded as me, so expect periodic and haphazard musings, charts and all manner of trivia as I make sense of the roller coaster that is the long road back to the top flight for our once-great club.

If the rantings are cathartic, how much more enjoyable is being able to set me straight when you think I've lost the plot.  Go ahead, have a ball!  I appreciate everyone who takes the trouble.  (Well maybe not trolls, haters and derby fans, but almost everyone)